Published November 14, 2025
If youre trying to keep a household budget on track right now, the financial headlines probably feel a little whiplash-inducing. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history just ended, some key inflation data may never be released, and at the same time were seeing mortgage rates tick up while savings and CD yields hold fairly steady.
As a 57-year-old who spends a lot of time thinking about retirement and family finances, Im less interested in the political drama and more focused on a simple question: What does all of this mean for your day-to-day money decisions?
1. The shutdown left a data blackout but your bills kept coming
The federal government shutdown that ran from October 1 to November 8 froze much of the normal work at agencies that collect economic data, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Octobers jobs and inflation reports were disrupted so badly that the White House is now signaling some of that data may never be published at all.
Thats a headache for economists and investors, but for households it mainly means this: were flying with a bit less visibility than usual on where inflation is heading in the very short term. The Federal Reserve and markets will have to lean more on private surveys and older data for a while, and that can make interest rates a little jumpier than normal.
The good news: according to AARPs shutdown guidance and Social Securitys own contingency plans, Social Security checks continued to go out on time during the shutdown, and they are still going out now. The drama in Washington did not stop your monthly benefit from arriving.
2. What we do know: a 2.8% Social Security COLA for 2026
Despite the data chaos, the Social Security Administration managed to get what it needed from BLS to calculate next years cost-of-living adjustment. On October 24, SSA announced a 2.8% COLA for 2026, which works out to about $56 more per month on average for retired workers starting in January.
AARP notes that for many older Americans, Social Security is the primary source of income in retirement, so even a modest increase matters. But its also true that essentials rent, groceries, medical costs havent gotten dramatically cheaper. In other words, that extra 2.8% helps, but it isnt a windfall.
If you or a parent are on Social Security, this is the right moment to:
- Log in to my Social Security (or set up an account) so you can see your updated 2026 benefit amount as soon as it posts.
- Update your 2026 budget with the new monthly number and sanity-check that against real-world increases in housing, utilities, prescriptions, and insurance.
- Talk as a family about any ongoing support you provide (or receive). A small bump in benefits doesnt replace a solid emergency fund or a realistic spending plan.
3. Todays rate picture: mortgages a bit higher, savings and CDs steady
While Washington has been wrestling with funding bills, markets have been digesting what comes next for inflation and interest rates. As of today:
- Mortgage rates: NerdWallet reports that average mortgage rates are somewhat higher today than earlier in the week, as markets react to the government reopening and try to price in the next moves from the Fed.
- Savings and CD rates: Their daily rate roundup also shows that high-yield savings and CD rates are holding fairly steady for now. Banks can change these quickly, but moves tend to be gradual.
In plain English: borrowing is still relatively expensive, while saving in insured accounts is still being rewarded better than we saw a few years ago.
4. Practical moves for your household this week
In a world where the data is a little fuzzy but your bills are very real, focus on what you can control. Here are some concrete steps you can take over the next week or two.
A. Tighten your near-term budget, just a notch
- Assume essential costs (food, utilities, insurance) will stay at least where they are now in early 2026.
- Trim or pause one or two non-essentials for 6090 days streaming, eating out, or impulse buys and redirect that money to savings or debt.
- If youre helping adult kids or aging parents, have a short, honest conversation about what you can realistically afford in 2026, given only a modest COLA.
B. Treat todays savings rates as a chance to rebuild your cushion
- If you still dont have 36 months of expenses set aside, consider increasing your automatic transfer into a high-yield savings account while rates are still attractive.
- For money you know you wont need for 612 months, look at short-term CDs and see whether locking in a rate beats your current savings yield.
- Keep true emergency money liquid. Dont chase a slightly higher CD rate if it means penalties when life happens.
C. Be cautious with new debt, especially variable-rate debt
- With mortgage rates still elevated, run the numbers carefully before trading a lower fixed rate for a move-up home or cash-out refinance.
- If you carry a balance on credit cards, prioritize paying that down. Variable-rate debt is where you feel Fed uncertainty the most.
- For big purchases, ask: Would I still feel good about this if rates stay where they are or rise a bit next year? If the answer is no, wait.
D. Nearing retirement? Use this as a stress test
If youre in your 50s or early 60s, this is a great real-world scenario to test your plans:
- Build a simple retirement budget using your projected Social Security (with the 2.8% 2026 COLA) plus pensions and savings withdrawals.
- Stress-test that budget by assuming slightly higher health care costs and only modest investment returns for a year or two.
- Talk to a fiduciary financial planner if youre unsure how much you can safely withdraw from your nest egg when markets and inflation are in flux.
Bottom line
The headlines about shutdowns, missing inflation reports, and choppy interest rates can sound scary. But from a household perspective, the story is more straightforward:
- Your Social Security benefit is still being paid, and its scheduled for a 2.8% increase in 2026.
- Borrowing remains costly, while savings and CD rates are still comparatively attractive.
- The exact inflation numbers for one missing month wont make or break your financial life but your budget, savings habits, and debt decisions will.
Focus on tightening your plan, not predicting the next headline. Thats how you protect your household, in 2026 and beyond.
